Blog Archive

Those of you who are not big college football fans might not realize that the biggest college football game of the year is upon us. At “high noon” Saturday it comes down to this: Michigan versus Ohio State. This is it folks. This is where all the talk all the hype all the work ends. The winner gets to feel good all year while the loser wonders what might have been.

You are also probably not aware of just how annoying it is to be a Michigan fan in Columbus, Ohio. Buckeye football is practically a religion around here and it is always in your face. On the radio, on television, in the paper, on billboards and signs around town; Beat Michigan is everywhere. This is particularly difficult when you are worried about how good your team is and whether victory is possible. When Michigan was winning 10 out of fourteen games it was always hard knowing that the dominance was bound to end – but when and how? Last year the season tailspinned out of control and Ohio State helped with the coup de grace. Tennessee stomped on the ashes.

So. Here we are this year with Ohio State undefeated and ranked #2. Michigan loves to knock OSU off their pedestal but that was under Cooper. The fear is, and the hope of the Buckeye faithful, is that Tressle is not Cooper but Woody Hayes.

On paper Ohio State should get the edge. Michigan’s offense is probably better but the edge on defense and special teams should go to Ohio State. Throw in home field advantage and OSU should be the favorite. But I can’t simply analyse this one academically. I have never been the cold hearted analyst when it comes to picking winners (as evidenced by my inability to pick the Steelers to lose). So I offer you a cop-out:

Here is what I hope happens. Michigan uses the passing game to make big plays and move the chains. They avoid missed field goals and score touchdowns instead. They have just enough success running to keep the defensive backs off-guard. Navarre doesn’t throw any intereceptions. The defense contains Krenzel and causes some turnovers. Michigan wins 21-17.

What I suspect might happen instead: Both teams make some big plays but Ohio State’s special teams gives the Buckeyes better field position. They make field goals when they can and keep Michigan out of the endzone when it counts. Navarre throws two key interceptions and Buckeyes head to Tempe, 23-17.

I know this is a lame excuse but I just can’t get a handle on how good these teams really are on any given day. Ohio State looked real good against Washington State earlier in the year but lately they have been playing ultra-conservative and allowing mediocre teams to push them to the edge. Michigan’s offense has looked good at times but Navarre seems unstable and the defense can give up points late in the game. I think the game will come down to turnovers/big plays. If Michigan can avoid giving Ohio State good field position then they can force Ohio State to convert on long drives – something I am not sure their offense is capable of right now. Michigan must put fear and doubt in Ohio State’s hearts. To beat the Buckeyes in the Shoe you must score touchdowns and you must protect the football. This can be a shining moment for John Navarre or it can be a confirmation that he is simply not a big game QB. Krenzel has got the job done when he needed to, the question is can he do it one more time?