Ohio Primary
by davidthayer
In case anybody is wondering, I think Kerry will win Ohio comfortably today. He has the Union support and the support of some key politicians (John Glenn, Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman). This organization will get out the vote. Plus Ohio likes a winner and he seems like a winner right now. The polls were certainly in his favor:
Separate polls over the weekend showed Mr. Kerry with commanding leads over his opponent. Results of a poll The Columbus Dispatch conducted by mail and published Sunday showed 59% of Democrats responding backed Senator Kerry, compared with 28% for Senator Edwards. On Friday, a telephone poll conducted for WBNS10TV showed Mr. Kerry with 48%, Mr. Edwards 29%, and 10% undecided, with the balance distributed among various other candidates.
I must say I was disappointed (although it is hard to be disappointed in a man who previously endorsed Wesley Clark) in Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman’s rhetoric in endorsing John Kerry. According to Gongwer [subscription required] Coleman used a rather odd metaphor to attack Bush by way of promoting Kerry:
Mr. Coleman said Senator Kerry could provide the leadership and generate the jobs the country needs. “I know that he’s going to identify those weapons of mass destruction, because they’re not in Iraq, they’re in America. The weapons of mass destruction are joblessness; the weapons of mass destruction are poverty. John Kerry will fight for all of us.”
What in the heck is he talking about? Sure Ohio’s economy could use a boost and the unemployment rate is around 6%, but is that really comparable to nuclear and biological weapons? Can’t the Democrats even talk about jobs without some smart alek remark about WMDs? How lame.
It seems that Mayor Coleman got Kerry to kiss his ring. After his Wesley Clark debacle he looked like he was leaning toward Edwards and even took the young Senator to church with him. But as I said, Ohio Democrats want a winner (and someone who will fight for Ohio in the general election) and Kerry is that man, at least for the moment.
What gets me is that Democrats and the national news media associate Ohio’s economic woes with the White House as if state policy carried no consequences whatsoever. Ohio’s corporate taxation is the third highest in the nation, thanks in part to a recent increase from Columbus (on top of a slew of new taxes and hikes on existing ones). While President Bush does all he can from Washington, our state remains unfriendly to business precisely – and sadly – because a majority of state Republicans are addicted to the opiate of tax-and-spend.
But that’s not relevant to the press or Dem stump speeches, most likely because Kerry’s not running for governor.
Ohio is saddled with a slew of poor politicians on both sides of the isle. Coleman’s unfortunate comments go with the rest of his record. He’s a passive mayor more inclined to do photo ops and promote useless civic works projects like sidewalk construction and street beautification. Meanwhile, businesses are abandoning downtown Columbus and the homicide rate is shockingly high.
Republican Governor Bob Taft isn’t much better. He’s managed to raise taxes, drive businesses away from Ohio, and cut funding for higher education while barely supporting conservative issues like the recently-passed concealed firearms permits.
Unfortunately, Bush is likely to pay for the terrible state and city leadership in Ohio. He can still win the state, but Ohio’s economy will be more of a determining factor than anything Bush does. He would be well advised to meet with Taft and get him to support some conservative issues before the election too. Repeal of the additional 1% sales tax would be a great place to start.
I can attest to the unfriendliness of the Ohio climate towards business. I work for a Michigan company, but we recently curtailed business in Ohio because of a court decision that exposed us to liability risks that made it no longer profitable to do business there.
So Kevin, how does all this bode for Kerry’s chances of taking Ohio in the November? Last I heard his plan was to concede the South, pick up all the States Gore Did and pry Ohio loose. Is it time for Kerry to find plan B or time for me to move to Australia?
One of the main forces that hurts Bush in Ohio is outsourcing. As more and more people who used to make $100,000/year are thrown out into the streets, Bush loses ground. These people will switch from Republican to Democrat.
Remember most people affected by outsourcing and corporate downsizing immediately blame Bush.
Another disturbing development for Bush is many lawyers who are pro-Kerry are using caps on medical malpractice to show case stories of a little girl who lost her leg, but momma can’t sue the evil HMO or hospital.
Look for this to give Kerry more mileage as the election heats up. It is going to be poor Americans versus insurance companies.