Ohio Update: Nadar and Same Sex Marriage Amendment

I thought I would offer some updates on a couple of issues that might have an impact on the Presidential election here in Ohio.

- The first issue is Ralph Nadar. It now appears clear that he will not appear on the ballot here in Ohio. The Ohio Supreme Court today refused to order the name of independent Ralph Nader placed on the November 2nd presidential ballot. The vote on the case was 6-1, with Justice Paul Pfeifer dissenting. I think this is likely a win for the Democrats and they certainly fought hard for it. I am not sure how many voters Nadar would siphon off of Kerry but in a race this close every little bit would hurt. I also happen to think that the decision is correct. There does appear to have been a significant level of fraud involved in the Nadar petition drive and that the Secretary of State was right to deny it and the courts have been right to support that decision.

- Another important issue in this election is the ballot amendment that would ban same sex marriages and civil unions here in Ohio. A new Ohio Poll has the amendment holding on to a majority of voters:

Fifty-seven percent of likely voters intend to vote for Issue #1, the proposed Ohio Constitutional amendment defining marriage in Ohio as “Only a union between one man and one woman . . . .”

Of particular interest is the fact that the amendment is overwhelmingly supported by Bush supporters:

Nearly three-fourths (73%) of Ohio likely voters who say they will vote for Bush are for the amendment, Kerry voters are against the amendment, 55 to 42 percent.

I think this clearly shows that the amendment is a net plus for Bush. It will motivate his voters to get to the polls. Interestingly, prominent Republicans can be found on both sides of the issue. Governor Taft, Attorney General Jim Petro, and both of Ohio’s Senators (George Voinovich and Mike DeWine) are opposed to the measure citing concerns that it was written poorly and would hurt economic development. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, State Auditor Betty Montgomery, and State Treasurer Joe Deters have voiced support. Petro, Blackwell, and Montgomery are jockeying for the Republican nomination for Governor in 2006.

Wednesday, a group of 20 state legislators voiced their support for the measure and downplayed the effect of Governor Taft’s opposition. On the other side, a group of 40 Ohio clergy rallied against the measure describing the proposal as “heinous,” “cruel,” “unjust” and “unholy.” It is worth noting, however, that last week a group of black clergy staged a similar rally in support. Clearly this issue cuts across party and interest group lines. In the Ohio Poll the amendment has majority support from all groups and ages. Even among 18-29 year olds the support hits 50%, but the real strength not surprisingly is with older folks; particularly the 30-45 group at 59% and the 61 and over at 61%. It is also not surprising that the strongest support is among rural and small town voters at 67%.

It should be interesting to see how these two issues impact the election come November 2.