Here is the breakdown:

Utah: no points in 2nd or 3rd quarter
Miami (OH): no points in 2nd or 3rd quarter
Notre Dame: no points 3rd or 4th quarter
Wisconsin: no points 1st or 2nd,
Illinois: no points in 2nd or 3rd quarter
Toledo: no points in 3rd or 4th quarter
Penn State: no points in 3rd or 4th quarter
Michigan State: no points in 4th quarter
Purdue: scored in every quarter
Minnesota: scored in every quarter
Northwester: no points in 3rd or 4th quarter

So in 8 games this year Michigan has gone two or more quarters without scoring a point!  How can you expect to win ball games if you take half the game off on offense from a scoring perspective?

Here are the points but quarter:

1st: 92, 2nd: 51, 3rd: 34, 4th: 65

Clearly this team struggles mightily in the third quarter.  Almost half of the yearly output (14 pts.) was in one game (Purdue).  In only 4 of 11 games this season have they scored at all in the third quarter.
Thoughts on why below.

Here are some options for why this is happening:

• Coaching: opposing coaches are figuring out Michigan’s schemes and coming up with ways to stop them while Michigan is unable to adapt.
• Talent: Michigan simply doesn’t have the talent to compete and this talent is winning out in the later half of the game.
• Inexperience: in pressure situations young players make more mistakes and thus we lose important scoring opportunities.

This is not an exhaustive list, obviously, but these seem like the main culprits.  And it also seems clear to me that in reality it is a mix of all three.

I think the lack of talent and experience has led to both inconsitent play and to a limited play book.  As opposing teams figure out what we are doing and shut it down, the coaches are not able to enlarge the play book or get more creative because the players are not able to handle it.  Critical mistkaes and turnovers have also plauged Michigan this year and this has taken away key scoring oppertunities as well.

I am not a Xs and Os guy, and I didn’t take the time to chart every drive, but have ing watched the game it was clear that the offense has simply been unable to move the ball for long stretches of time.  The scoring numbers reflect this and it has meant the difference between being competitive and getting blown out and between narrow loses and wins.

It Michigan is to have a prayer of winning on Saturday they will need to find a way to be consistent and not take a couple of quarters off.  It the above pattern holds it will get ugly.

Darryl Stonum walks through the Michigan Stadium tunnel

There was something about Saturday’s Michigan Northwestern game that was painfully familiar.  The same old mix of hope and despair we have seen all season.  The defense comes of with a big interception only to have the offense fail to score a touchdown and have the field goal attempt blocked.  Yet another special teams fumble that leads to an opponent touchdown.

But it wouldn’t be this Michigan team if they also didn’t give the fans some sick hope they might pull out the win.  So a walk on manages to block a punt and that leads to a touchdown and a halftime lead. Then came the reliable Michigan third quarter collapse.  Michigan scored with 6:30 left in the half and never scored again.  Despite having more first downs, more yardage, and more time of possession Michigan loses by a touchdown.

A they have so many times this year, the offense simply disappeared.  Despite a strong running game led by Carlos Brown (115 yards), neither Sherridan nor Threet could muster any consistency in the passing game.  As a result A nice second half touchdown drive and one 53 yard passing touchdown by Northwestern was enough to seal the win.

Michigan had a number of opportunities to win and simply failed to take advantage.  Donovan Warren had an interception that appeared to be run back for a touchdown, but the refs ruled he stepped out of bounds.  Nevertheless, Michigan had the ball in Northwestern territory, but Threet badly overthrows the TE Massie for an interception in the endzone.

The defense continues to hold and the offense puts together what looks like a nice drive.  After picking up a key fourth down, the sequence is a summation of Michigan’s season.  First Martavious Odoms drops a pass that would have been a first down.  Then Carlos Brown trips and falls when he has clear room to run.  Suddenly it is 3rd and 11.  Two more incomplete passes and the game is essentially over.

So the question becomes can Michigan pull of the miraculous win and beat Ohio State on Saturday?  Everything points to a resounding no.  Michigan simply doesn’t look like a team capable of beating a competent opponent and Ohio State is often a good deal more than merely competent.  Michigan has no clear leader at QB and is banged up at RB.  It is full of freshman in key positions and has given up big plays at critical moments all season.  They face a freshmen QB with exactly the type of skill and athleticism that has given Michigan fits.  And a RB who crushed them last year.

As the dubious records continue to pile up (Saturday’s loss mean the first 8 loss season in UM history) this game will be no different.  For the last 79 years every first year Michigan coach has won their first Ohio State game.  Michigan is on a four game losing streak to Ohio State and Ohio State has never beaten Michigan five years in a row.

Think about that.  No one on this Michigan team will have beaten Ohio State in their careers if they lost Saturday.  I can’t imagine motivation will be a problem for the game, talent will be.  I can’t remember a time when Michigan was struggling this much heading in to The Game. So I guess this will be a new experience for me: watching one of the greatest rivalries in sports with the sinking feeling that there is no way my team can win.

But if Michigan can somehow pull the upset of the ages, fans could savor it the entire off-season and find some hope for the future of the program.

Little Brown Jug 2008

In a year when Michigan football streaks were being broken by the handful it is nice to see a streak continue.  Let’s review:

• First lost to a MAC team in 25 games?  Check.
• First lost to Penn State in 10 years?  Check
• First lost to Michigan State since 2001 and first at home since 1990?  Check.
• First lost to Purdue since 2000?  Most points ever given up to Purude?  Check.
• Headed to first non-bowl season in 33 years?  Check.
• Headed to the first losing season in 41 years?  Check

So today against Minnesota Michigan was in danger of their first loss in the Metrodome and giving up the Little Brown Jug for only the third time in 31 seasons.  But Michigan finally played a complete game and notched thier twelth win in the Metrodome.

Most Michigan fans are wondering where that Nick Sheridan has been all season.  His poor play had led fans to believe that Sheridan = death, but he played a nice game today and Michigan’s offense was balanced as a result.  Combine this with a defense that never let Minnesota get on track and you have something we really haven’t seen all year: a Michigan team that seemed in control and who played consistently for sixty minutes.  More thoughts below.

A few things that stood out to me:

• Against a mostly traditional offense the defense looked good.  They put pressure on the QB, didn’t give up the big play, and the tackling was better.  This is the defense fans expected this year.
• As noted above, Nick Sheridan looked a like a different player.  He made good decisions for the most part and ran the offense well.  Minnesota was going to stack the line and make Michigan prove they could throw the ball.  On a number of key plays Sheridan did just that and kept Minnesota from selling out against the run.  I remember a couple of key third down plays that led to points.
• Justin Feagin looks like a useful weapon in this offense.  Nice to have something else for opposing defenses to have to prepare for.
• Scoring points in the third quarter was key.  Michigan had struggled all year after half and had only scored 14 points total in the third quarter all season coming into today.  Two field goals isn’t lighting it up but they moved the ball and put points on the board in every quarter and that is important.
• The final drive was awesome.  A six minute plus touchdown drive to put the game away was such a great statement for this team given their inability to close out so many other games.  I would have to think that would be a confidence builder.

This has to feel good for the coaches as well.  The pressure had been building as each week brought a new low.  Getting a solid win against anyone at this point is progress.  To play well for all four quarters and in all phases of the game has to feel good and give this team something to build on.  And at the same time give the coaches a sense that the team hasn’t given up and that they can turn the corner on this thing.

Of course, it would be nice to see it repeated next week to show that it wasn’t a fluke.  But for now I will savor the win.

Playing one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, 2-6 Purdue, Michigan coudln’t find a way to hold leads of 14 points two different times and a tie game with 80 seconds left.  Despite scoring 42 points on offense, the defense gave up 48 points to the Boilermakers led by a third string QB who had been playing running back.  With the game on the line the defense gave up two huge trick plays and never seemed able to slow down an heretofore anemic team (Purdue hadn’t scored a touchdown in 3 of their last 4 games).

Michigan repeatedly missed tackels, had penalties in key situations, and turned the ball over on special teams yet again.  A defense that was supposed to be the foundation of this team entering the season has become an absolute laughing stock.  They have given up five touchdowns in five games and 129 points in the last three games.

In what was clearly becoming a shootout the Michigan offense once again took a big chunk of the game off.  Michigan took a 14 point lead with 5:29 to go in the first half.  They didn’t score again until there was 12:19 to go in the game.  Purdue scored 21 unanswered points to take a 35-28 lead and Michigan would never lead again.  Michigan has scored 14 points in the third quarter all year!

Despite this, and aided by a couple of big penalties by Purdue, Michigan tied the game with 1:20 left.  All the defense had to do was make a stop; or even hold them to a field goal.  Instead, Purdue marched down the field and used a perfectly executed hook and ladder play to score the winning touchdown.

I am not sure why I am surprised.  If not for critical penalty by Wisconsin, Michigan would have managed this pattern in eight straight games.

Michigan is now assured of a losing record for the first time in forty years and will miss a bowl game for the first time in 33.

Here is what I said after the Penn State debacle:

You would be foolish to bet on Michigan these days.  They simply can’t play a complete game of football.  About the only way I can see them winning a game this year is against a team that turns the ball over and lets them hang around in the fourth quarter.  And even then, as we saw against Toledo (Toledo!!!!), even then they are as likely to blow it as to win.

True.  I honestly don’t think they will win another game all season.  They simply don’t know how to win.  And I can’t seem them figuring it out this late.

Michigan’s run as an elite program is over.  It may be temporary as it seems likely, given his history and Michigan’s ability to recruit, that once Rich Rodriguez gets his type of players into the system and developes some chemistry that they will return to their winning ways.

But right now they simply can’t be considered anything but a once proud program a few years from being competitive.  And that is something I have never known in my lifetime.

I guess maybe that is why I was so angry this afternoon.

season of pain continues

The Michigan Wolverine’s season so far:

• First lost to a MAC team in 25 games?  Check.
• First lost to Penn State in 10 years?  Check
• Headed to first non-bowl season in 33 years?  Sure looks like it.
• Headed to the first losing season in 41 years?  Ditto.

Next week should be interesting.  Michigan State will be coming off their own butt whooping at the hands of Ohio State.  Michigan State hasn’t beaten Michigan since 2001.  They might just be a tad motivated

Either Michigan State will continue its annual swoon or Michigan will continue its nose dive.  Something has to give.

You would be foolish to bet on Michigan these days.  They simply can’t play a complete game of football.  About the only way I can see them winning a game this year is against a team that turns the ball over and lets them hang around in the fourth quarter.  And even then, as we saw against Toledo (Toledo!!!!), even then they are as likely to blow it as to win.

The question of where bottom is for this team continues . . .

Well, that was an incredibly frustrating game.  I was prepared to see an offense that continued to struggle and a defense that gave up points after getting tired.  I was prepared to admit that Michigan just wasn’t that good; that the change in coaching and system, when combined with a large loss of talent, would mean a real rebuilding year for the first time since I can remember.

What I was not prepared for was an offense that looked the best they have this season, who moved the ball practically at will, but a catastrophic inability to hang on to the football resulting in an ugly lopsided loss.  That Michigan would gain more first downs, more yards, and control the ball longer that ND and still lose by 18 points never really entered my mind.

As I told a friend, I would rather that Michigan had just played flat out poorly all around and then I could just write the year off.  Now I have no clear idea how good this team is (assuming they could find a way to quit self-destructing).  I know that is a big if but, with all the caveats playing ND involves, even in a downpour that looked like an offense that could actually succeed in the Big Ten.  And the defense is far from dominant, but if they are not constantly put in terrible positions, I think they can hold their own.

Unfortuneatly, we now have to wait two weeks to play Wisconsin and see just how good a team we are dealing with in Michigan.  As I said, frustrating.

Positives:

• I thought Steven Threet played very well.  Some nice throws and generally seemed to run the offense.  Yes, there were the fumbles in a wet game, but I think he should be the sole starter from here on out.  I felt like Michigan could win the game with him as QB; he made some clutch plays under a lot of pressure (big game, on the road, bad weather, down big early, etc.).
• Mcguffie is emerging as a real weapon.  Quick but surprisingly strong.  Dangerous in both running and passing game.

Negatives:

• Uh, the turnovers.
• Giving up some big plays over the top on defense makes me nervous.
• The kick and punt returns continue to struggle.
• I hope the injury to Threet is not serious.
• D line didn’t seem to get a lot of pressure.  ND is far from the best O line Michigan will face and they will have to get pressure.

The other bad news is this puts a dent in Michigan’s quest to make a bowl game.  With nine Big Ten games left they would have to go 6-3 just to get to 7-5.  That is a tall task.  Assume they beat Toledo, Purdue, Minnesota, and Northwestern – no gimmies but not the top of the conference – then they have to find a way to win three games from Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State and at Penn State and Ohio State.  The most likely scenario is to beat those first three teams at home, but even that seems like a stretch.

The good news is that Michigan has two weeks to get ready for Wisconsin.  Rich Rodriguez is going to have get this team ready to cut out the critical mistakes if he wants to make a bowl game even in a down Big Ten.  And despite the ugly result on Saturday, optimistic fans may have seen just enough to believe such a thing is possible.