Against Wisconsin, Michigan essentially followed the same script that’s resulted in its current 1-6 stretch.  A couple of sparkling defensive plays, followed by a second half filled with miscues and missed assignments. When the spread offense looks like it’s starting to click, it stalls and a tight game turns on a dime.

Either the Ohio State game will be a legendary upset or it will put this season out of its misery.  At least that is something.

Illinois is the next yardstick.  If we can’t beat up on the worst team in the league like everyone else then 1) the hole from last years “the horror” is deeper than I had thought and 2) it is going to be a long rest of the season.

Welcome to the long rest of the season.

This game was the polar opposite of poise and polish. The defense started immediately by allowing the Illini to mark down the field and score.  The offense countered with their own.

After that it seemed like the defense settled down and the offense was looking to get into some sort of rythym.  But as everyone knows by now, Michigan didn’t score on a long pass play and failed on four tries to get it in the endzone from the one.

From that point on both sides of the ball made critical mistake after critical mistake and the game turned into one of the most unexpected blowouts I have ever watched.

Michigan fans have to simply admit to themselves that this is not a good football team.  For whatever reason, instead of rising to the occasion like they did earlier in the season they now fade and falter at critical moments.

The defense is absolutely horrendous. Constantly out of position and unable to make critical tackles.  They stiffen on occasion, and play decent in spots, but give up big play after big play with mind numbing regularity.  But that is to be expected to a certain degree.  The talent simply isn’t there and the defense is too young and not athletic enough to make plays.  But I really can’t say I expected this kind of spanking.

But the offense is now in the same position.  It doesn’t seem to matter who it is there are critical mistakes at important junctures.  It seems like every single time there is a big play (like a blocked punt or a good defensive stand) the offense turns the ball over or fails to capitalise. What I had hopped would keep this team competitive has become painful to watch.

The offense can’t get into any rhythm because of dropped passes, missed assignments, or penalties.  And the turnovers have once again returned in epic fashion.  This team is not good enough to win unless they score points.  And you can’t score points when you are giving the ball away consistently. The red zone has become a twilight zone of miscues and turnovers.

Tate Forcier has gone from looking like the quarterback of the future for Michigan to a confused and dispirited player.  He is forcing things and making stupid mistakes instead of taking what the defense gives him.  And yes he seems to have picked up Denard Robinson’s fumbling habits (two fumbles inside the 20 today).

Over at MGoBlog - the premiere Michigan sports site on the planet – the debate is raging over this team (Brian even had to take some draconian measures to try and avoid mass banning).  Many are discouraged and disgusted by the team and wonder if things will/are getting better. Others insist that the teams is just going through the growing pains that are the reality right now.

I am a little bit in the middle.  I don’t think Michigan should fire Rich Rodriguez or even believe that hiring him was a mistake.  I am not jumping off the bandwagon or employing any other cliches.

But it is clear to me that this team has regressed in the last few weeks and without significant changes will lose the rest of their games and miss a bowl game.

I don’t care how bad Purdue is – and they got smoked by Wisconsin today – Michigan will not beat anyone with the way they played in the second half today.  You can not turn the ball over time and time again.  You can not give up big plays over and over again.  You can not drop passes, miss assignments and make critical errors and expect to win.

Purdue has the offense to score points and until we prove we have the ability to consistently score points I can’t see us winning any more games.

Some people seem to want to tie rooting for Michigan to not recognizing the actual strength or weakness of the team.  I am never going to stop being a Michigan fan.  But that doesn’t mean I have to ignore the fact that in back to back weeks this team came out and played with an incredible lack of poise and discipline.

To quote Dave Birkett:

Michigan is a bad, bad football football team right now. And that’s being kind.

This team is dysfunctional.  It has not show the ability to play good football in some time.  And even when it was playing well against Iowa it continued to make huge mistakes and turn the ball over far too much.

As I said above, until they prove otherwise you have to assume that this is what this team is; a team with some talent a huge amount of youth and inexperience and a complete lack of discipline.

Put it this way: Ohio State-Michigan has suddenly begun masquerading as an OSU-Toledo game, a switch not without a touch of irony considering the Wolverines lost to Toledo this season.

But the rivalry is tottering not simply because Michigan has had an embarrassment or two, or because of an unprecedented five consecutive OSU wins in the series, or because Michigan has just finished the season 3-9, or even because the Buckeyes hammered their hapless rivals 42-7 yesterday in Ohio Stadium.

It is tottering because the Wolverines looked so weak yesterday that it’s hard to imagine they’re looking at a quick fix. This is a team so bad that even the rivalry couldn’t lift it up, and this is a rivalry that injects so much emotion in the game that it sometimes makes mediocre teams look pretty good.

Rich Rodriguez is a good coach, but he’s not Moses. After Michigan’s woeful performance in the Horseshoe, it seems clear that for Rodriguez to lead his team out of the Big Ten’s second division — not even one of college football’s lower-middle-class neighborhoods these days – it’s going to take more than a few top recruits.

Hunter goes on to all but predict that Ohio State wins the next two meetings. And then gets in a litte dig:

Some rivalry, eh?

If this keeps up, those little gold pants Ohio State players receive for winning the Michigan game may eventually become worthless trinkets around here. They used be rare as a gold doubloon. Now they’re like loose change. Fifth-year seniors have five pairs.

The Buckeyes fans are clearly enjoying things. But you have to think this kind of talk will serve as good motivation for Rich Rodriguez and the Wolverines as they work to regain their winning ways and the respect that comes with it.

File this away for the future.

Image via Wikipedia

After the expected beatdown today that is the only question left.  Has the Michigan Wolverines football program reached the low point?

- First time ever to lose to a MAC school.

_ First losing season in four decades.

- Not going to a bowl game for the first time in over thirty years.

- First time in history Michigan has lost more than 7 games in a season.

- First time Ohio State has won five in a row against Michigan.

This “historic” season has been a cruel and unusual punishment for Michigan fans.  This was the first Ohio State Michigan game in my memory where I simply knew we were not going to win – where I was without hope.

It was a weird experience.  There was a lot less tension and anger.  It was kind of an empty feeling.

When Warren picked off that Pryor pass and then the offense proceeded to fail to score any points I knew the game was over.  I just knew the offense was not going to be able to score enough points to win.  I was hoping for something that didn’t seem embarrassing.  But even that was out of reach.  Nick Sheridan simply isn’t a capable enough player to win against a competent foe like Ohio State.

Want to talk about offensive impotence?  Out of 12 games Michigan failed to score in two or more quarters 9 times!  In two thirds of their games the offense failed to score for half of the game!

So here is the question: assuming Michigan has a Division I caliber player – even if a freshman – can Michigan return to competitive football?

Only time will tell, but I say yes.  As bad as things have been this year, with a capable QB Michigan wins 6 or 7 games in my opinion.  There are a lot of young players who got valuable experience this year both in playing and in learning the system.   I have to think these players will only get better next year.  Provided the horrendous turnovers don’t repeat themselves. I can see Michigan winning 7 games next year even with a freshman at QB.  Heck, Chad Henne had a great freshman season.

Rich Rodriguez has a history of turning programs around and I think at Michigan he can recruit the talent to get it done.

But all that is just hope.  Right now the program is ashes.  The question is whether there is a Phoenix lurking.

Michigan fans have to suffer a long off-season to find out.

From the Ashes

Image via Wikipedia

Pat Forde notes yet another potential streak that could end in this Saturday’s Michigan Ohio State game:

In the illustrious history of Michigan football, 12 coaches have played against Ohio State. Their record in their first game in this rivalry: 10-1-1. Only Harry Kipke (24) failed to get it done, in 1929. The rundown:

(Note: attendance in 1902 when Yost’s team put that fearful beating on the Buckeyes was listed as 6,000. By the time Yost was done, he had built Michigan football into a colossus. Attendance for George Little’s first shot at Ohio State in ‘24 was 70,000.)

So no pressure Rod, but you’d be making one more bit of horrible history this season with a loss Saturday. A 3-9 record and the first debut loss to the Buckeyes in 79 years? Not ideal.

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

Interesting article in the Columbus Dispatch on Rich Rodriguez and the trials of taking over a storied program like Michigan – and struggling mightily your first year.

A couple of things stood out to me.  One was the discipline he is trying to install:

It wasn’t just the playbook that changed.

“From practices to meetings to dress codes to lifting schedules to where we eat, what we can do, where we can go, curfew — there are a lot of things that are different,” senior defensive tackle Terrance Taylor said. “You expect that, but being here, you want to hold on to something you know about.”

Michigan used to have season-long captains. This year, they were chosen on a weekly basis.

Before, Michigan players didn’t have a curfew. Taylor said Sunday night’s curfew required players to be home by 10 p.m., in bed by 11.

Rodriguez has banned players from using cell phones in the team’s building “because when we’re in the building he wants us talking to each other,” Taylor said.

Given the trouble college football players seem prone to get into when out late, the curfew seems like a good idea.  And the cell phone rule connects with a larger theme Rich Rod is trying to build:

As for changing the team’s culture, Rodriguez said he wasn’t sure how that should be defined. He said that if that meant instilling the desire to do the best they can on and off the field and put team before individual, that’s what he wants.

“Is that the culture where I’m at right now?” he said. “I don’t know. But that’s the culture that I want. If that’s the culture that our fans want, then we’re on the same page.”

I think that is a simple but worthy philosophy: the desire to be the best on and off the field and to value your team more than yourself.  I am confident Rodriguez can recruit talent.  But if he can mold a true team that has that camaraderie and commitment then Michigan can be a national contender again.

The article ends with an anecdote that shows how Rodriguez is illustrating that commitment himself:

It could very well be that all Rodriguez needs is time. That’s something he didn’t have after his hiring. Though he had the senior class over to his house more than once, some of them felt they got short shrift.

Harrison, the safety, was among them. Then last weekend on Senior Day, his parents were late getting to Michigan Stadium from Dayton because of traffic from an accident. So instead of having Harrison take the field unescorted, Rodriguez accompanied him.

“He didn’t really need to do that,” Harrison said. “I see him in a whole different way. I used to look at him as just my head coach. Now I look at him as if it’s a different type of bond.”

I don’t know about other Michigan fans, but I felt better about our coach after reading this article.  There has been a lot of debate about the so called “family values” at Michigan under Rodriguez, but the values noted above are the right ones in my opinion.

Playing one of the worst teams in the Big Ten, 2-6 Purdue, Michigan coudln’t find a way to hold leads of 14 points two different times and a tie game with 80 seconds left.  Despite scoring 42 points on offense, the defense gave up 48 points to the Boilermakers led by a third string QB who had been playing running back.  With the game on the line the defense gave up two huge trick plays and never seemed able to slow down an heretofore anemic team (Purdue hadn’t scored a touchdown in 3 of their last 4 games).

Michigan repeatedly missed tackels, had penalties in key situations, and turned the ball over on special teams yet again.  A defense that was supposed to be the foundation of this team entering the season has become an absolute laughing stock.  They have given up five touchdowns in five games and 129 points in the last three games.

In what was clearly becoming a shootout the Michigan offense once again took a big chunk of the game off.  Michigan took a 14 point lead with 5:29 to go in the first half.  They didn’t score again until there was 12:19 to go in the game.  Purdue scored 21 unanswered points to take a 35-28 lead and Michigan would never lead again.  Michigan has scored 14 points in the third quarter all year!

Despite this, and aided by a couple of big penalties by Purdue, Michigan tied the game with 1:20 left.  All the defense had to do was make a stop; or even hold them to a field goal.  Instead, Purdue marched down the field and used a perfectly executed hook and ladder play to score the winning touchdown.

I am not sure why I am surprised.  If not for critical penalty by Wisconsin, Michigan would have managed this pattern in eight straight games.

Michigan is now assured of a losing record for the first time in forty years and will miss a bowl game for the first time in 33.

Here is what I said after the Penn State debacle:

You would be foolish to bet on Michigan these days.  They simply can’t play a complete game of football.  About the only way I can see them winning a game this year is against a team that turns the ball over and lets them hang around in the fourth quarter.  And even then, as we saw against Toledo (Toledo!!!!), even then they are as likely to blow it as to win.

True.  I honestly don’t think they will win another game all season.  They simply don’t know how to win.  And I can’t seem them figuring it out this late.

Michigan’s run as an elite program is over.  It may be temporary as it seems likely, given his history and Michigan’s ability to recruit, that once Rich Rodriguez gets his type of players into the system and developes some chemistry that they will return to their winning ways.

But right now they simply can’t be considered anything but a once proud program a few years from being competitive.  And that is something I have never known in my lifetime.

I guess maybe that is why I was so angry this afternoon.

Well, that was an incredibly frustrating game.  I was prepared to see an offense that continued to struggle and a defense that gave up points after getting tired.  I was prepared to admit that Michigan just wasn’t that good; that the change in coaching and system, when combined with a large loss of talent, would mean a real rebuilding year for the first time since I can remember.

What I was not prepared for was an offense that looked the best they have this season, who moved the ball practically at will, but a catastrophic inability to hang on to the football resulting in an ugly lopsided loss.  That Michigan would gain more first downs, more yards, and control the ball longer that ND and still lose by 18 points never really entered my mind.

As I told a friend, I would rather that Michigan had just played flat out poorly all around and then I could just write the year off.  Now I have no clear idea how good this team is (assuming they could find a way to quit self-destructing).  I know that is a big if but, with all the caveats playing ND involves, even in a downpour that looked like an offense that could actually succeed in the Big Ten.  And the defense is far from dominant, but if they are not constantly put in terrible positions, I think they can hold their own.

Unfortuneatly, we now have to wait two weeks to play Wisconsin and see just how good a team we are dealing with in Michigan.  As I said, frustrating.

Positives:

• I thought Steven Threet played very well.  Some nice throws and generally seemed to run the offense.  Yes, there were the fumbles in a wet game, but I think he should be the sole starter from here on out.  I felt like Michigan could win the game with him as QB; he made some clutch plays under a lot of pressure (big game, on the road, bad weather, down big early, etc.).
• Mcguffie is emerging as a real weapon.  Quick but surprisingly strong.  Dangerous in both running and passing game.

Negatives:

• Uh, the turnovers.
• Giving up some big plays over the top on defense makes me nervous.
• The kick and punt returns continue to struggle.
• I hope the injury to Threet is not serious.
• D line didn’t seem to get a lot of pressure.  ND is far from the best O line Michigan will face and they will have to get pressure.

The other bad news is this puts a dent in Michigan’s quest to make a bowl game.  With nine Big Ten games left they would have to go 6-3 just to get to 7-5.  That is a tall task.  Assume they beat Toledo, Purdue, Minnesota, and Northwestern – no gimmies but not the top of the conference – then they have to find a way to win three games from Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State and at Penn State and Ohio State.  The most likely scenario is to beat those first three teams at home, but even that seems like a stretch.

The good news is that Michigan has two weeks to get ready for Wisconsin.  Rich Rodriguez is going to have get this team ready to cut out the critical mistakes if he wants to make a bowl game even in a down Big Ten.  And despite the ugly result on Saturday, optimistic fans may have seen just enough to believe such a thing is possible.

I am back in my home state of Michigan and happy to be here.

Driving six hours with an eleven month old in the car is a bit of a challenge, but we made it up here safe and sound.

I thought my BlackBerry was going to catch on fire as the emails burned up the wires.  As I was was leaving Ohio McCain was heading to Dayton to announce his VP pick!  Lisa agreed to drive so I could read email.  Speculation was followed by amazement followed by debate and discussion.

Once we arrived Ella wanted to swim right away and I joined her in the water.  We then had a lovely meal and peach gobbler for desert.  Then finished out the night with a soak in the hot tub.  Ah, vacation!

Hard to believe that college football has started.  I will nervously be watching the University of Michigan Wolverines game against Utah this afternoon.  I am hoping that they can get off to a better start than they did last year!  The start of the Rich Rodriguez era will finally be under way.

Hope all of you are having a great Labor Day weekend.