Ohio seems poised to shake off the ugliness of the past few years with a number of candidates who can excite the grassroots and bring the GOP coalition back together again. Kasich’s rally last night gave a glimpse of the excitement that is building.

For more, see below.

First, the setting was perfect.  The announcement took place in Westerville, Ohio – Kasich’s hometown – not downtown at the Statehouse.  After the earlier storms cleared away it was a beautiful afternoon and evening.  And the setting of The Everal Barn gave the event the feel of a grassroots gathering – complete with local musicians – not a carefully managed political stage show.  Obviously a lot planning went into the evening, and plenty of politicians and staff were in attendance, but it didn’t feel overly-managed and the mood was laid back and natural – even as the clear excitement about the candidate’s appearance began to build.

In this perfect setting what you are looking for is the substance and style o the speech to back it up; a sense that the candidate is ready for the challenge ahead.  The questions on most people’s minds in these situations are: Why is he running? Does he have the right focus? And can he pull it off? I think Kasich answered all of those questions.

Kasich made it clear that he is running because the state, and the country, needs leadership that current officials are not providing.  Kasich outlined his career in congress working towards shrinking government, balancing the budget, and cutting taxes.  He spoke of how so many told him these things were impossible; that the system couldn’t be changed.

He recalled with pride how he had put together a team to get elected and work toward those goals.  And after a lot of hard work how that team was an integral part of accomplishing those supposedly impossible goals.  And he noted with sadness, and a touch of anger, how ten years later those very accomplishments were being torn down and destroyed the current congress and administration.

Kasich made a compelling case that he felt called back to public service because it was his duty to give back to the state and community that had given him so much.  He forcefully argued that in these challenging times we simply can’t shrink from service or ignore the problems we face. He refused to leave public service to the cynical and maniulative.

And Kasich clearly knows what is on the mind of voters in Ohio and across the country: the economy.  And he framed this issue brilliantly.

Kasich bluntly acknowledged that Ohio had been in the ditch for some time and that as a result of years of bad decisions we had drive ourselves even deeper in that ditch.  And now for too many dynamic and talented people Ohio is no longer the place where they choose to seek their dreams; where the most talented young people want to live and work.  Instead, places like North Carolina, Florida, Austin, Silicon Valley, or outside of Boston are viewed as the places to seek success. To do what Kasich’s parents encouraged him to do “Dream Big. And change the world.”

Kasich argued that the current policies and programs are not going to change this; will not lead us out of the ditch.  And while he was willing to admit that leadership in both parties had drifted in recent years, he argued that Governor Ted Strickland was simply not up to the challenges Ohio is facing.

He described Strickland as a nice “caretaker” using this humorous but effective analogy:

If you have a house on the river and the flood’s coming, he’s going to show up Saturday morning with a box of doughnuts and a pot of coffee, you’ll sing Kumbaya and hold hands and watch your house float down the river.

Kasich explained that the solutions were not new – they are the very same goals and ideals that propelled him to serve in the first place.  In order to make Ohio a place where the best and the brightest want to live and build their dreams, we must reform government, improve education, and change the business climate.

And the recipe for success is the same as when he first ran for congress: shrink government, require accountability in eduction – from distrcits, schools, teachers, students, and parents alike – and remove the burdens on businesses that force them to relcocate or prevent them from succeeding.

Kasich noted that just like last time there would be many who would say these goals are impossible.  And the interest groups that benefit from the current policies would fight change.  But Kasich vowed to once again bring together a team and to unite Ohioans to meet these challenges and accomplish these goals.

He didn’t, howver, paint a rosy scenario of the work that was involved.  He acknowledged that the upcoming election would be a great deal of hard work.  He acknowledged that balancing the budget, shrinking government, and cutting taxes would be a momentous task and one that would take time.

But he wasn’t content to mouth platitudes either.  Kasich argued that his goal would be to work hard enough over time at “skinnying down” government and growing the economy that Ohio could get rid of the income tax that keeps it in such an uncompetitive position with other states.

As I said, Kasich took to heart his parents mantra to “Dream Big, and Change the World.”  At a time when many are talking about the fear of raising taxes and, the left is blaming Ohio’s budget problems on previous tax cuts, Kasich set out a goal of getting rid of the state’s income tax!

Kasich seems to understand that the free market economy creates wealth and higher standards of living for Americans.  And that if Ohio can create the environment that attracts entrepreneurs and successful businesses they will bring the jobs.  Punishing the most successful only pushes the job creators, and source of most philanthropy and charity, out of state.

So Kasich has an asnwer for why he is running and he has a focused message on the number one issue of the day.  But the final question is a big one: Can he do it?

Well, obviously I think having the first two questions answered in a convincing and attractive way goes a long ways toward answering this last question.

But I also think that Kasich has the tools and the circumstances to become Ohio’s next governor.  He has a folksy and populist style even as he has the experience and track record of tackling these problems.  He is a good public speaker but doesn’t come off as too slick.  And he has an economic situation in Ohio that is ripe for a full-throated conservative message of smaller government and the free market. But at the same time he isn’t afraid to admit Republicans have made mistakes and drifted from their principals.

This may seem counter-intuitive at a time where government is growing by leaps and bounds and voters seem to be doubting the market.  But the Democrats simply don’t know how economic growth happens and they seem incapable of not over-reaching.

The bailouts, stimulus and run-away spending of the Democrats on the state and national level are not going to bring jobs to Ohio.  Strickland’s supposed buddy, President Obama, couldn’t save the car industry jobs that are disappearing in Ohio as we speak and Mr. Turn Around Ohio hasn’t turned anything around.

And as this continues I honestly believe that the voters are going to give GOP candidates the chance to be heard; to offer an alternative vision for the future.  And what we have to have is candidates who are ready to give that vision and to sell it to voters willing to listen.  John Kasich is that type of candidate.

This will take  a lot of hard work.  And Kasich repeated that mantra throughout his speech.  But what is exciting about Kasich is his ability to make Republicans believe again and to remember how to work together again as a coalition with like goals in mind. And if Ted Strickland and President Obama hasn’t drive home the lesson of elections have consequences, I don’t know what will.

Kasich started that process last night.  And I am confident he will continue to lay out that vision as the campaign continues.  Our job is join him, and other similar candidates around the country, and put in the hard work needed to win.

If we do we really can Dream Big and Change the World.

These are difficult times.  Everyone is having to tighten their belt and make sacrifices.  Except for the federal government who under Barack Obama seems intent on spending itself into oblivion. Usually states can’t follow this route because their constitutions require a balanced budget.  But in hard times states often push the envelope using one time funds, fee increases, and any other gimmicks they can find to make the budget process easier.  This generally cuts across party lines as few are in the mood for drastic cuts.

That said, I think the Ohio House is pushing this tendency to the limit and past it.  I am not sure you can find a more uncertain economic environment than the current one in recent memory.  So prudence requires that you limit future damage by being cautious, right? Ohio Democrats answered that question with a resounding “Heck, No!”  I guess they are taking their cues from President Obama.

The Democrat led Ohio House passed the $54 billion budget bill along party lines and sent it on to the GOP controlled Ohio Senate.  What is shocking is that they added $622 million to the budget Gov. Strickland introduced and used even more one time monies.  The bill now includes $7 billion in one-time state and federal dollars!  And to get as much wiggle room as they could, they used the most optimistic economic forecasts they could find.  And to top it all off the budget includes fee increases, not tax increase of course, to the tune of$1 billion dollars.

So with future growth uncertain, Ohio’s economic climate enemeic, and a budget crisis looming in the future for anyone with the sense to see it, what do Ohio Democrats do? Why increase spending, use more one time funds, and increase fees!  Not too mention their attempt to destroy charter schools and fix education by simply hiring more teachers and union members.

As I have noted before, say what you will about the GOP, but Democrats simply have no idea how to stimulate economic development.  All they know is more government all the time.  Good times?  Spend like there is no tomorrow?  Bad times? Spend like there is no tomorrow!

There are two positives, however, that may come out of this.  One, we are seeing the Republican leadership of the Ohio House begin to reconnect to the the base.  This budget was a sweet spot where everyone could get on board and make the argument for less spending and less regulation.  It has focused the attention of the caucus and given them a chance to prove they can lead.

Two, the budget now heads to the GOP led Senate where, one would hope, the damage can be limited.  This too gives the GOP a chance to lead and make their case to the voters that they are the responsible ones when it comes to the budget.

The GOP must take advantage of this opportunity to remind the voters why they did not entrust the Democrats with power before.  That if given the chance the Dems will simply attempt to spend money the state doesn’t have and pay the consequences later.  They will look to reward their interest groups and increase the power of government and limit the ability of the individual.  And none of this is going to bring growth and opportunity to Ohio’s economy.

If the Ohio GOP plays it smart this budget process, and the general economic slowdown, will provide a perfect object lesson for voters on the nature of Democratic policy.  Let’s hope they don’t waste it.

Update: Kyle Sisk has some thought as well.

If given a choice between cutting services for the sick, hungry and abused or raising taxes on businesses and wealthy families, Ohioans are all for boosting taxes, according to a new survey released Wednesday March 25.

Fifty-seven percent of Ohio voters favor rolling back some recent income tax breaks and increasing some business taxes and taxes on people making more than $200,000 as a way to avoid service cuts, according to Hart Research Associates’ telephone poll of 602 registered Ohio voters.

The poll was commissioned by a coalition of human services groups that are lobbying lawmakers to keep money in the state budget to help food pantries, public schools, child welfare agencies and mental health services.

Notice the way the question is put in the first sentence.  Forced to choose between “cutting services for the sick, hungry and abused” and “raising taxes on businesses and wealthy families” people choose the latter.  Shocking, I know.

Would you rather people go without food or remain in abusive situations or would you rather rich people pay a little more?  Tough question, right?  But anyone who has worked on the state budget knows it isn’t quite that simple.

But the format is not all that surprising given who paid for the poll.  I do wonder how cold hearted the 43% who voted not to raise taxes must be.  Very unpatriotic of them too.

The article also points out one large example of GOP failure:

The poll found that 62 percent of Ohioans are worried about jobs and the economy while only 14 percent name state and local taxes as among their top concerns. The state adopted a 21-percent across the board income tax reduction that is being phased in over five years. Republicans herald it as a crucial step toward making Ohio business friendly. But only 8 percent of the poll respondents knew that state income tax rates had been lowered.

Nice work, Republicans.  You actually cut taxes and no one seems to even know about it!  I believe the young kids call this message = FAIL.

The question is whether just because the people aren’t aware of it that means they won’t care if their taxes go up again.  I can guarantee you that Governor Ted Strickland doesn’t believe that is true.  (And I have a feeling by tax day most people will be happy about the cuts whether they recognize how they came about or not.)

But a great many of the liberal interest groups that support Strickland would like to convince him it is.  They have been upset about the tax cuts from the get go and want to play the game of only raise taxes on the rich.

The bad news is that these “rich” folks – and that definition gets quite tricky – are exactly the folks who grow the economy.  They start business, hire people, invest in things, etc.

It is tempting to think that you can just raise the taxes on wealthy people ever so slightly and thus avoid the devastating cuts to the poor, hungry, and destitute that this difficult budget presents.

But a dynamic and growing economy is what raises standards of living and promotes the kind of charitable giving and stable budgets that provides for a social saftey net.

Raising taxes is not the answer. But watch social services advanacy groups try to make the case in the coming weeks and months.  This poll is just a sneak peak into their mindset.

Ohio Governor Ted Strickland is also a down the line liberal who pretends to be centrist, but he has failed to emulate the leader of his party on the issue of charter schools.  Instead of embracing charter schools – called community schools in Ohio – he has launched an all out attack on them via the state budget.

What is remarkable is that the state’s editorial boards – who have criticized charters in the past and are no bastions of conservatism – have responded by calling on Strickland to listen to Obama and stop his partisan attack on the schools.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer makes the case well in their editorial President Obama says let charter schools bloom; so should Gov. Ted Strickland:

Cleveland is fortunate to have a number of those thriving, innovative schools. Cleveland’s Citizens’ Academy and the Entrepreneurship Preparatory School are educating students who had been floundering in the city’s public schools.

Somehow, though, their academic success hasn’t impressed the governor. Relying on scant evidence — especially for someone touting evidence-based school funding — Strickland seems to believe that charter schools can be funded on the cheap. The governor doesn’t seem to realize — or perhaps doesn’t care to admit — that most have to do major fund-raising from donors who are a lot less wealthy in this economic maelstrom.

Strickland’s budget recklessly slashes charter school funding 20 percent. Online charter schools suffer even deeper cuts. Unlike traditional public schools, charters would receive no additional funding for teacher pay increases, even though charters often serve the same poor, urban youngsters.

Strickland complains that for-profit companies that manage charter schools are blinded by the money, showing little interest in teaching children. But he proposes to slash away at every charter school — good and bad. That’s irresponsible.

A process is already in place to close charter schools that fail in their mission. The many good charter schools in Cleveland support this process, and it would make a great deal more sense if the governor supported it, too.

They conclude:

Strickland should think twice before ordering every child out of these little lifeboats, because some of them would certainly be forced back aboard sinking ships.

When it comes to understanding the importance of charter schools to many Ohio students, Strickland clearly has a lot to learn. He should ask the president for some tutoring.

Ouch!  Sad but true.

Think it is just Cleveland?  Nope, how about the Akron Beacon Journal.  The ask a very good question: Why has Ted Strickland taken aim at charter schools that are meeting his goals for public education? Despite their skepticism about many charters they recognize the what these budget proposals really mean:

If student performance in charter schools, for the most part, has shown little if any improvement on the regular schools, a number among them, indeed, are living up to expectations as models of educational creativity and achievement. Cleveland’s Citizens’ Academy, Intergenerational School and Entrepreneurship Preparatory School come easily to mind.

And truth be told, the presence of charter schools has a been a prod for public schools, driving them to take innovative measures they otherwise had no reason to consider. Many urban districts now run charter schools of their own, for example.

In that context, Strickland’s budget for charter schools in some instances defies the policy priorities he has defined for primary and secondary education.

[. . .]

A decade’s experiment in charter schools has produced such models as Citizens’ Academy and E-Prep that bear replication. They are succeeding at the creative approaches to learning Strickland says all children deserve. The challenge Ohio must meet (a challenge reiterated by President Barack Obama) is to create incentives for excellent education, in public as well as charter schools. It will be Ohio’s loss if Strickland’s charter school proposals result in slowly but effectively starving to death excellent schools along with the mediocre and the failures.

Moving on from the Northeast to Central Ohio, we have the Columbus Dispatch.  They too wonder why Strickland can’t see what Obama seems to understand.  They argue that Obama endorses new ideas in education; Strickland should do same:

President Barack Obama’s speech on Tuesday to the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in Miami showed a willingness to break with Democratic orthodoxy by embracing two good ideas long-opposed by teachers unions: merit pay for teachers and charter schools.

Obama earned boos on the campaign trail at their very mention. His continued support is good news for a system that has struggled to improve youngsters’ academic performance.

Strickland not only declines to support merit pay, his proposed budget slashes funding for charter schools, which would make them even more vulnerable to budget woes.

On Tuesday, the same day that Obama spoke of the need to embrace reforms, dozens of charter-school supporters filled a Statehouse hearing room to ask legislators not to approve the sections of Strickland’s budget that would gut charter-school funding.

The governor’s plan would remove charter-school funding from the so-called foundation formula, by which regular public schools are funded, making charter funding as vulnerable as any other line item. The amount he provided for charters, assuming their enrollment stays the same or increases next year, equates to at least a 20 percent cut from the foundation formula they received this year.

Strickland also would arbitrarily ban all for-profit charters, even though some of the state’s most successful charters are operated by for-profit companies, including one in Dayton that is the highest-rated public elementary school.

Moving West we have the Dayton Daily News (Governor’s shot at charters hits Dayton).  They also recognize the governor is aiming at closing some of the best schools in the area:

Gov. Ted Strickland must be stopped in his drive to put charter schools out of business.

His proposed budget would cut funding for the state’s 330 charter schools by about 20 percent overall, which, for many, would mean they’d be done.

The schools already get far less in taxpayer money than traditional public schools. That’s the price they pay to buy autonomy to operate free of sometimes stifling bureaucracy and rigid union contracts.

In Dayton, the cut would be a travesty for the charter schools that are besting or equaling Dayton public schools. Especially tragic would be the potential double-whammy that the Dayton Early College Academy would suffer.

Let’s be clear: If the governor gets his way, this special school that is putting Dayton on the map nationally in the school reform movement is history.

I know what you are thinking.  Why am I quoting liberal editorial boards praising Barack Obama?  Because it points out the utter laugh-ability of Strickland’s centrist image and his education reform claims.

If Barack Obama and editorial boards across the country can see that this budget is a ham-handed direct attack on charter schools at the expense of reform and the most vulnerable children what does it say about Strickland that he refuses to back down?  This is plain and simple a sop to the teachers unions who support him.

He might even hope that GOP led Ohio Senate removes the provisions so he does have to face the political fallout.  After all, he did much the same thing last budget (attacked charters but did nothing when the GOP took those proposals out).  Or maybe in what is bound to be a tough re-election bid he is determined to keep labor on his side?

Whatever the motivation, Strickland’s proposals are bad for education in Ohio, bad for future reform, and a disaster for the students of Ohio.  In at least this one instance we can all agree that Strickland should quit kissing up to labor unions and listen to President Obama.

Strickland has an easy chance to shore up his centrist fig leaf credentials by following Obama’s lead.  Knowing Governor Strickland, however, I am not holding my breath.

The Dayton Daily News had the Strickland story yesterday.  And the truth of the matter is that Strickland’s handling of the economy was never that popular.  But the Quinnipiac poll has some interesting numbers:

The poll, taken as the national and state economies continue to flounder, found that voters disapprove of Strickland’s handling of the economy, 45-39 percent. In a poll released Feb. 5, voters approved of Strickland’s handling of the economy, 44-37 percent.

Also, the new poll found Strickland had a 56-30 percent job approval rating, down from a 63-25 percent approval rating in the Feb. 5 poll.

In another finding, voters narrowly disapproved – 46-43 percent- Strickland’s use of one-time money to balance his proposed state budget. Overall, however, they approved of how Strickland is handling the state budget, 44-36 percent.

Now you can see why Strickland has been so feisty when asked about his budget.  He knows he is playing a dangerous game but has little choice.  If he gives in to his liberal supporters and calls for outright tax increases (instead of fee hikes and other revenue increasers) he faces a backlash from voters on a traditional GOP strength.  But if he uses one time money and other sources he gets hit by the media and the GOP for simply kicking the can down the road rather than addressing the problems now.

President Obama’s numbers are feeling the effects of economic conditions as well:

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating has dropped slightly in Ohio, according to a new poll by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Obama, who had a 67 percent approval rating Feb. 6, is now at 47 percent. Thirty-three percent of Ohioans have an unfavorable view of him, according to the newest poll, up from 16 percent Feb. 6.

[. . .]

Obama’s biggest loss is among independent voters. In February, 72 percent supported him, and 55 percent support him today. He’s also lost support among evangelical protestants.

“During a presidential election, Ohio is the single most important state in the country because of its history of being a decisive barometer. So the 10-point drop in President Obama’s support in the Buckeye State is something that the White House might want to pay attention to,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

You can see that voters may still have fond feelings for the president but the longer the economy struggles the more likely he is to lose support.  Voters are really not all that sophisticated about these things, IMO, if the economy is struggling they eventually blame those in leadership like the governor and the president.

Now is the time for the GOP to hone and sharpen our ideas about economic development so that when the public is willing to listen to alternatives to the failed Democratic policies we have coherent proposals to put forward